First Presidential Debate: Overview, Highlights, and Analysis

Published in the Connecticut College Voice October 1, 2008
Summary of the Debate

First Question: Where do you stand on the financial recovery plan?

Obama: Discussed the need for oversight, insurance that taxpayers get money back and receive gains “if the market -- and when the market returns,” the need to make sure “that none of that money is going to pad CEO bank accounts or to promote golden parachutes,” and the need to address the housing crisis and help homeowners. He ended the segment by declaring that the current crisis “is the final verdict on eight years of failed economic policies,” i.e., the trickle-down theory.

McCain: Stressed the need for bi-partisanship, and for any financial package to include measures for transparency, accountability, oversight, and it must “have options for loans to failing businesses.” He also said that we must create jobs and eliminate our dependence on foreign oil.

In the follow-up segment:

Obama: Said he was optimistic about the plan, and emphasized that he warned about the sub-prime mortgage crisis years ago. He also criticized the “economic philosophy that says that regulation is always bad,” and said that we must fix both short-term and long-term problems in the financial system concomitantly.

McCain: Seemed flustered about the package, but answered that “sure” he would vote for the plan as a US Senator. He then proceeded to discuss how he too warned about the looming financial crisis, and how his administration will be famous for holding people accountable. McCain also said that he has “a fundamental belief in the United States of America. And…under the right leadership, our best days are ahead of us.”

Second Question: Are there fundamental differences between your approaches to what you would do as president to lead this country out of the financial crisis?

McCain: Said spending must be controlled, particularly earmark spending, and stressed that Obama has requested millions of dollars of Federal money as the Illinois Senator.

Obama: Noted that earmark spending accounted for $18 billion in last year's budget, which is not a lot compared to the $300 billion in tax cuts for wealthy corporations and individuals proposed by McCain. His economic plan calls for a tax cut for 95% of working families.

In the follow-up segment:

McCain: Again stressed the money Obama requested, the threat from earmark spending, and that he has a maverick reputation in the Senate. He also mentioned that Obama’s plan calls for new Federal spending programs, while he wants to cut spending and keep taxes low.

Obama: Rebutted by saying that he proposes to close corporate loopholes, stop providing tax cuts to corporations that are shipping jobs overseas, and “make sure that we have a health care system that allows for everyone to have basic coverage”—earmark spending reform will not be enough.

McCain: Said he wants to cut business taxes to keep businesses in the US and create jobs, and that he wants “every family to have a $5,000 refundable tax credit so they can go out and purchase their own health care…[and] to double the dividend from $3,500 to $7,000 for every dependent child in America”.

Obama: Stressed that McCain’s proposals do not fix corporate loopholes, but just add taxes over them, and that his health care tax credit system is a bad policy because it leaves the health care of individuals to the unregulated open market, which cannot solve everything.

Third Question: As president, as a result of whatever financial rescue plan comes about and the billions, $700 billion, whatever it is it's going to cost, what are you going to have to give up, in terms of the priorities that you would bring as president of the United States, as a result of having to pay for the financial rescue plan?

Obama: Said it is hard to anticipate the tax-revenue for future years, especially as the economy is slowing down, but that certain proposals will be delayed. He said we must “eliminate programs that don't work, and…make sure that the programs that we do have are more efficient and cost less”. He gives priority to energy independence, fixing health care, education reform, and rebuilding infrastructure to ensure America remains competitive in the global economy.

McCain: Said that we must cut government spending, and do away with ethanol subsidies and cost-plus contracts in defense spending. He stressed that he was the candidate more fit to bring spending under control.

Follow-up segment: (both were again asked if they were proposing major changes)

Obama: He would look for savings in defense spending, and acknowledged that the current financial crisis will affect the Federal Budget.

McCain: Suggested “a spending freeze on everything but defense, veteran affairs and entitlement programs,” and criticized Obama’s proposals for inefficiencies, and for their over-spending.

Fourth Question: What do you see as the lessons of Iraq?

McCain: Said “the lessons of Iraq are very clear that you cannot have a failed strategy that will then cause you to nearly lose a conflict,” and stressed that defeat would have been dangerous—but that the tactics and strategy of General Petraeus have been successful

Obama: Stressed that the real issue was whether we should have invaded in March 2003, and that he opposed it from the beginning because it was a distraction from the fight against al-Qaeda and the search for Osama bin Ladin.

Follow-up segment:

McCain: The next president will have to deal with issues of how and when to exit, and the legacies left behind, not whether we should have invaded. He then stressed his travel experience and the success of the surge, which he had promoted all-along, as evidence that he would better equipped to make decisions. McCain also said that both General Petraeus and bin Ladin believe the central battleground is in Iraq.

Obama: Said that McCain acts as if the war began in 2007 (with the surge), while ignoring the fact that it was a “tactic designed to contain the damage of the previous four years of mismanagement of this war.” He clarified that he opposed increasing defense spending bills without timetables, and that the central front of the war on terror is Afghanistan.

Fifth Question: Do you think U.S. troops should be sent to Afghanistan, how many, and when?

Obama: Said we need more troops, and that we cannot separate Iraq from Afghanistan. He also said that we must pressure the Afghan government to work for its people, get the poppy trade under control, and “deal with Pakistan” (i.e., they have not used the billions of dollars we have given them to get rid of terrorist safe havens).

McCain: Acknowledged it was wrong for us to “wash our hands” of Afghanistan so early on, and that we need a surge in troops there. He said he was not willing to use our aid payments as leverage against the Pakistanis, and that what we really need is for the Pakistani people to be on our side, and for them to help us root out terrorists.

Follow-up segment:

Obama: Clarified that he never said he wanted to attack Pakistan, but that if the US has al-Qaeda members, or bin Laden, etc, “and Pakistan is unable or unwilling to act, then we should take them out.” He also mentioned that our support of Musharraf was part of the reason we have no legitimacy in Pakistan. Also accused McCain of saying we could “muddle through” Afghanistan while focusing on Iraq.

McCain: Emphasized his record of involvement with national security issues, stressing that he was better fit to make tough decisions about military commitments. He also said that General Petraeus acknowledges that we will fail in Iraq if we follow a specific withdrawal timetable (what Obama proposes), and that failing there will have calamitous effects in Afghanistan and American national security interests in the region.

Sixth Question: What is your reading on the threat of Iran right now to the security of the United States?

McCain: Said that a nuclear Iran threatened the existence of Israel, and would likely cause a regional nuclear arms race, and he proposes that a group of democratic states join together to put meaningful sanctions on Iran. Also noted that Iran is aiding Iraqi insurgents, and that overall, the country is a threat to global security. He also criticized Obama’s willingness to engage in diplomacy without pre-conditions as naïve and dangerous.

Obama: Said that he thinks the Republican Guard of Iran is a terrorist organization, and that they pose a giant security threat. But, unlike McCain, he supports “tough direct diplomacy” with Iran. He also defended his diplomacy proposals—“the idea is that we do not expect to solve every problem before we initiate talks”—on empirical grounds.

Seventh Question: How do you see the relationship with Russia? Do you see them as a competitor? Do you see them as an enemy? Do you see them as a potential partner?

Obama: Said “a resurgent and very aggressive Russia is a threat to the peace and stability of the region”. He also stressed that we must enforce the cease-fire and removal of Russian troops from South Ossetia and Abkhazia, while also supporting other democracies in the region.

McCain: Criticized Obama’s initial response to the Russian invasion, and spoke of the connections to energy. He also mentioned his travel and contact records in the region.

Follow-up segment:

Obama: Said he did not differ much from McCain, and further drew connections to NATO expansion and energy independence.

McCain: Continued the debate about energy policy.


Eighth Question: What do you think the likelihood is that there would be another 9/11-type attack on the continental United States?

McCain: Stressed that America is safer today than it was on 9/11, but that we have to strengthen our technological and intelligence capabilities—without the use of torture.

Obama: Said that in some ways we are safer, but that we still have a long road ahead: we must deter nuclear proliferation and terrorist groups like al-Qaeda by focusing more on Afghanistan, and that we also must fix America’s poor global image.

Follow-up segment:

McCain: Again remarked that Obama “doesn’t get” that losing the war in Iraq will cause us to lose the war against al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Said Obama does not have the knowledge and experience to make the types of foreign policy decisions required as President, but guaranteed that “as president of the United States, [he knows] how to heal the wounds of war, [he knows] how to deal with our adversaries, and [he knows] how to deal with our friends.”

Obama: Said “we have weakened our capacity to project power around the world because we have viewed everything through this single lens…and the next president has to have a broader strategic vision about all the challenges that we face.”




Highlights of the Debate:

1) Obama repeatedly saying under his breath or over McCain’s comments, “John, that’s just not true….”
2) McCain repeatedly saying that Obama “just doesn’t understand…”
3) McCain’s creepy smile and references to his age (and his old pen).
4) Obama’s tendency to interrupt and speak over McCain and Lehrer.
5) …And the winner: when McCain said, “I think the lessons of Iraq are very clear that you cannot have a failed strategy that will then cause you to nearly lose a conflict” (no, really?)




Analysis of the Debate

In the first section of the debate, the candidates were asked three questions about the current US financial crisis. Both candidates repeated the proposals and figures they have been saying all week, but it was interesting to watch them argue back and forth. Stylistically, in this section, Obama certainly had the upper hand. He put a somewhat flustered McCain on the defensive, and articulated his position and policy proposals in a clearer, calmer fashion. As could be predicted, neither candidate was willing to give specifics about the impact of the financial crisis on their administration’s spending, though at one point, McCain suggested “a spending freeze on everything but defense, veteran affairs and entitlement programs” (I hope he was joking around.) They debated the merits of the trickle-down theory, defense spending, and the funding of Federal programs, all the while agreeing on the need to create more jobs, increase oversight in the financial sector, and cut unnecessary spending. McCain’s focus on earmark spending appeared inane when compared to bloated defense budget figures and the extra Federal revenue expected by closing corporate loopholes.

In the second section, the candidates were asked five questions about foreign policy—particularly about Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Russia, and the relative level of security in the US. Stylistically, in this section, McCain, whose area of expertise is national security and foreign policy, controlled the debate, and put Obama on the defensive for most of the time. Obama, however, held his own, knew his facts, and intelligently articulated his point of view. I don’t know how other Americans received McCain’s consistent “Obama just doesn’t understand” approach, but I found it sounded empty, particularly because the debate was less about facts, and more about approach, strategy, and tactics. McCain’s military and travel experience was apparent, and I was surprised that Obama did not mention his usual “fresh face in politics will change things” argument. I was most interested in the areas where they clashed, such as how to deal with Iran, Pakistan, and whether there should be a withdrawal timetable in Iraq. We’ve heard them make all of the same arguments on the campaign trail, but it was interesting to watch them fight it out at the podium.

I thought Obama’s argument for negotiating with Ahmadinejad could have been stronger than “what we have been doing has yet to work,” because McCain’s belief that we do not negotiate with terrorists/rogue states has a deep moral tradition and following in the US. I thought they both made strong arguments for dealing with Pakistan: they both asserted, supported, and defended their individual approaches and willingness to pressure Pakistan. I thought Obama took a bit of a hit when McCain noted that the next President will have to contend with exiting Iraq, not whether we should have invaded in the first place, though Obama’s point about McCain “liking to pretend the war started in 2007” was strong. Both candidates acknowledged that the war in Afghanistan is absolutely related to the war in Iraq, though McCain opposes setting a timetable for troop withdrawal, and Obama was very critical of McCain’s past willingness to declare Afghanistan a success, and move on to Iraq. I wish that the candidates had discussed their proposals for non-military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan beyond the vagueness of pressuring Iran and supporting democracy. Neither saw Russian aggression as fomenting a new Cold War, but both criticized Russia’s actions and called for supporting weak democratic states in the region. Neither candidate made any mention of Chinese ascendancy, or the possible restructuring of the world system and global power distribution, two important things I wish they had discussed.

Overall, I appreciated Jim Lehrer’s efforts to get the candidates to talk to one another, and I enjoyed the liveliness and humor in their attempts to talk over each other. As expected, both candidates proposed vague policies, but, interestingly, were challenged and forced to get more specific in the rebuttal segments. Most objective analysts of the debate declared a tie, with neither candidate dominating the discussion overall nor landing a “knockout punch.” I agree with this assessment, and look forward to this week’s Vice Presidential debate, for that might be more likely to sway the candidates’ pre-election standings.