The War We Can't Ignore

Today, the United States has a rare window of opportunity to encourage negotiations toward a cease-fire in Somalia, but we must take action immediately. On October 26th, one of Somalia's insurgent groups agreed to put down its arms in exchange for a promise by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to include it in the national military, and to set an exit plan for Ethiopian troops. While it is reported that internal fighting has weakened this particular group, and none of the other stronger insurgent groups have offered to join the deal, this is still a significant and symbolic event. The failed state of Somalia has been plagued by internal chaos and anarchy since the early 1990s. And after a failed UN humanitarian mission humiliated the United States in 1991, we have largely ignored Somalia. That is, until 2006.

By 2006, while the TFG was operating out of Nairobi, a series of Islamic Courts had sprung up throughout the country, bringing the first modicum of stability and regulation to the region in decades. The Courts’ strict adherence to Islamic law prompted much international condemnation, though many Somalis were, for the first time in years, expressing relief for the new security, order, and accountability. To the United States, it did not matter that the capital city, Mogadishu, was safer and more stable, as the administration only saw the red flag of radical Islam, taken to be a synonym for anti-Americanism and terrorism.

Then, in December of 2006, Ethiopia, which is Somalia’s historic enemy, suddenly invaded Somalia to oust the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and reaffirm the power of the TFG. The ICU leaders fled south into Kenya, and it appeared to be a quick and easy defeat of the de facto authorities. Yet within weeks, the country reverted to a state of disarray, as an ICU Islamist-lead insurgency began fighting the Ethiopian troops. A few weeks after the initial foray into Somalia, it became clear that the US had played a substantial role in the conflict: We gave Ethiopia (one of our allies in the War on Terror in the Horn of Africa) a green light to invade, and supplemented its attacks with our own air strikes against the fleeing ICU leaders. With increased attention paid to the War on Terror in the Horn of Africa, US interest in the conflict has returned.

In the past two years since the Ethiopian invasion, Somalia (particularly the area around Mogadishu) has become the worst humanitarian crisis in Africa—even worse than Darfur. The country has seen a resurgence of tribal and clan-based warfare, a multi-faceted insurgency, regional destabilization, an increase in offshore piracy, and a seemingly futile future for the Transitional Federal Government. Yet, US official policy has been to continue to support the TFG and an African Union peacekeeping mission (AMISOM), with the goal of preventing Somalia from becoming a safe-haven for terrorists, as it was, the administration says, under the ICU. Whether the ICU would have become an international threat to the United States is debatable, but what is certain is that by fomenting the current instability that is destroying Somalia, terrorism is much more likely.

Even though the recent economic crisis and upcoming elections are consuming most of our attention, we cannot forget Somalia. This first negotiation between an insurgent group and the TFG is significant, as it shows the willingness of the TFG to solve this crisis and end Ethiopian military control—both of which the Somali people desperately want. Now is the time for the United States and other global actors to show that we want peace in Somalia, and to put pressure on other insurgent groups and the TFG for further negotiations. In addition to strong diplomatic actions, greater focus must be placed on humanitarian aid, and giving tactical or financial support for peacekeepers. It is crucial that attention be directed to the needs of the Somalis as a whole, not just to individual clans and tribal leaders as in the 1990s, if the international community hopes to gain any legitimacy with the people. As we have seen time and time again in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, terrorism is much more likely when it can feed off of unstable and devastated areas. If the United States hopes to be taken seriously in the future on our international commitments to human rights, democracy promotion, and fighting terror, we must jump at this rare occasion for diplomacy, before it all falls apart again.